The Czech Republic has banned Polymarket, adding it to a list largely populated by illicit online casinos, as yet another European country thumbs its nose at the predictions industry.
On Monday July 13 the Czech Ministry of Finance quietly added Polymarket to its list of unauthorized gambling operators.
Inclusion on the list requires action on the part of internet service providers, who now have 15 days to block access to the platform.
Polymarket is among the market leaders in offering prediction markets, where individuals can take the sides of various event contracts in an effort to predict their outcome.
Sporting events, including the ongoing FIFA World Cup, have become a key offering for Polymarket and its competitors, in what some members of the gambling industry say are an attempt to circumvent national gambling licences.
This has also drawn the ire of many of Europe’s gambling regulators.
Including Polymarket on its blacklist means that the Czech Republic joins Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Ukraine and Brazil in taking action against predictions operators.
Nine of those nations were taking joint action announced in June, warning against the lack of safer gambling safeguards on unlicensed prediction sites.
The regulations promised to take action “against prediction markets platforms that failed to comply with our local regulations”.
About time?
Placing Polymarket on the Czech blacklist was warmly welcomed by representatives of the locally licensed gambling industry.
“Prediction markets are not harmless technological novelties. They involve betting on real world events, often without clear accountability to the state, without standard player protection measures and without the rules that apply to legal gambling,” said Jan Řehola, the director of the Institute for Gambling Regulation, an industry group based in Prague.
He called the move by the Ministry of Finance an “important step” in maintaining fairness in the Czech gambling market.
“If something looks like a bet, functions like a bet and allows people to win or lose money depending on the outcome of an uncertain event, we cannot stop treating it as gambling simply because it is called a contract,” he said.
In some markets, prediction operators have voluntarily withdrawn from sports contracts.
This includes the UK, where the Gambling Commission has warned that any operator looking to offer contracts on sporting events would need a betting exchange licence.
Safe harbor
In the United States, under the watchful eye of the administration of President Donald Trump and his various family members, predictions operators are flourishing.
They operate under the oversight of federal watchdog the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing them to essentially ignore state regulations.
State gambling regulators that have attempted to ban prediction markets face lawsuits from major operators or even the CFTC itself.
This is despite entrenched opposition from much of the traditional gambling industry, who are required to acquire state licences and follow far more stringent regulations.
Perhaps the clearest sign of the ascendency of US predictions were needed, was the decision by sports betting market leaders FanDuel and DraftKings to abandon their ties to the wide gambling sector in order to launch their own challengers to the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi.
The numbers suggest that business is booming for prediction market leaders, without many of the overheads of a traditional betting operator.
According to its own financial reports, Kalshi records monthly trading volumes up to $15bn. Polymarket reported that it supported trades of around $220bn in 2025.
Controversy has continued to swirl around prediction markets in the US, however, not only because of their questionable legal status, but because of the several bet manipulation and insider trading allegations.
Most notable, a US soldier was found to have wagered on the deposing of former Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro, weeks before the raid on his compound by US special forces.
Getting in on the act
Despite these integrity challenges, it is clear that prediction markets are here to stay.
This week, offshore hub Gibraltar released the first standalone prediction market regulations of its kind.
Offering companies discrete predictions licences, separate from the many online sports betting approvals they offer, the British-ruled European region hopes to provide a friendly home for predictions providers in a world where many jurisdictions are either unwilling or unequipped to offer them licensing cover.
Gibraltar’s rules include a requirement that all event contracts are “not readily susceptible to manipulation” and requires operators to have integrity measures in place.
The region has already inked two new predictions licensees, including ADI, which has become a familiar name in recent weeks thanks to its status as the official predictions partner of the FIFA World Cup.
US-based operator WagerWire is slated to be the second holder of one of Gibraltar’s new licences.
“I think this is the beginning of the end of the wild west and the taming of the frontier,” WagerWide co-founder Travis Geiger told iGB.
