Macau’s gaming sector is likely to see a slowdown in EBITDA growth in June and July due to the mainland’s crackdown on illegal money exchange operations in Macau, according to a recent forecast by Morgan Stanley.
China’s Ministry of Public Security has launched a major campaign to target “money exchange gangs” providing large-scale cash exchange and loan sharking services to mainland Chinese gamblers in Macau. These illicit activities have been facilitating the flow of funds out of China, which authorities view as a threat to financial stability.
The crackdown has already yielded results, with police across China reporting successful operations that have uncovered millions in illegal exchange activities and the arrest of dozens of suspects. However, analysts warn that disrupting these unofficial currency exchange channels could potentially lead to a slowdown in mainland Chinese travel to Macau’s gaming industry.
Praveen K Choudhary, Gareth Leung and Stephen W Grambling of Morgan Stanley project that the second quarter will see the first negative quarter-on-quarter growth in both mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) and corporate EBITDA since the post-Covid-19 reopening. Mass GGR is expected to decline 2% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 113% of 2019 levels, while corporate EBITDA is forecast to decrease 7% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 80% of pre-pandemic levels.
The brokerage firm predicts that June and July will see a slowdown due to the money exchange crackdown, while weaker macroeconomic conditions, consumption, and retail sales in China could persist in the third quarter and further impact the Macau market.
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