Brazil orders nationwide ban on online betting, raising South Africa questions

Brazil has moved to shut down its regulated online betting market. On 25 September, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure 1.394 banning fixed-odds betting and online casino games nationwide, including the “operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of betting.” The measure takes immediate effect, but Congress must approve it within 120 days or it lapses.

The ban applies to foreign operators taking bets from people in Brazil and cuts off local payments: banks and payment firms can no longer process betting transactions except to close accounts and refund players. Unsettled bets will be voided with stakes refunded in full, while winnings on already settled bets must still be paid. Brazil’s Ministry of Finance had granted 85 licences worth a combined R$2.55 billion in authorisation fees, and pending market-entry applications have been halted.

The government has framed the move as a harm intervention. Brazil’s Health Ministry described online betting as a growing public health issue linked to financial difficulty, anxiety, depression and family conflict, while the central bank estimated last year that Brazilians spend about R$30 billion on bets each month. The timing is also political: Lula signed the measure just over a week before the first round of the presidential election on 4 October, and paired it with a household debt relief programme. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro criticised it, calling the measure “populist, hypocritical and politically motivated.”

Operators and suppliers have focused on black-market displacement and financial impact. Brazil’s national betting association, ANJL, said the ban would push more than 30 million bettors onto illegal websites. Kambi chief executive Werner Becher echoed the point, arguing that demand does not disappear when licensed operators are removed. Public guidance updates cited in the release include Flutter expecting the ban to cut 2026 revenue by about $70 million and EBITDA by around $20 million, Entain assuming the ban holds for the rest of 2026 in its FY26 outlook, and Allwyn preparing legal action related to its five-year Brazilian licence.

For South Africa, the Brazil move puts policy direction under fresh scrutiny, but a similar overnight shutdown looks unlikely based on the country’s legal structure and current policy signals. In South Africa, online sports betting is legal while online casino games are not, and bookmakers are licensed by provincial gambling boards rather than a single national authority. The release also points to a regulatory-and-tax pathway rather than prohibition: National Treasury has proposed a 20% national tax on online gambling revenue on top of provincial taxes of 6% to 9%, and Trade Minister Parks Tau has said a new gambling bill is being fast-tracked, with a draft expected before Cabinet later this year. The offshore market is a further constraint: the South African Bookmakers’ Association estimates illegal online gambling drains more than R50 billion a year, with unlicensed offshore operators accounting for nearly two-thirds of online activity, making a ban on licensed operators potentially self-defeating.

The release flags advertising and sponsorship as the more likely pressure point for South Africa, citing the National Gambling Board’s work on advertising rules and its partnership with the Advertising Regulatory Board. It also points to African precedent for bans in smaller markets, including Ethiopia, where the Ethiopian Lottery Service issued a directive banning sports betting companies nationwide with immediate effect after a multi-agency probe cited licence breaches and illicit financial transfers described as a national security threat.