CasinoReviews: prediction market bans correlate with higher search interest

CasinoReviews.net published research on 16 September 2026 arguing that regulatory restrictions on prediction markets are linked to higher—not lower—public curiosity, based on Google Trends analysis of Kalshi and Polymarket.

The report analyses a year of Google Trends data (September 2025–September 2026) across 51 countries, cross-referenced with IFES ElectionGuide.org’s global election calendar and “dated regulatory reporting,” according to CasinoReviews. It found that “bans correlate with, not against, search interest,” with eight of the top 15 countries by Polymarket search share and four of the top 15 for Kalshi described as jurisdictions that restrict or have formally banned prediction markets.

CasinoReviews says election periods are the main demand driver. It reports the highest worldwide point in Polymarket search interest during Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7, 2026, with the second-largest sustained peak around Hungary’s parliamentary election and Peru’s initial presidential vote, both held April 12, 2026.

The research also claims Kalshi “trades more money than Polymarket” but attracts less search attention outside the US. CasinoReviews puts Kalshi slightly ahead in the US (21% vs. 19% search share), while stating Kalshi falls to single digits across “nearly every other country studied,” suggesting Polymarket has broader global awareness.

On market access controls, CasinoReviews points to what it describes as deliberate marketing into restricted territories. It says Polymarket is hiring Mandarin-speaking staff and building Lunar New Year-specific betting markets despite being blocked by China’s Great Firewall, and argues geo-blocking is a weak tool given Hungary’s IP-based restriction is “openly acknowledged as bypassable by VPN” and that China’s approach still sees “hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts per month” routed through VPNs.

Nikoleta Kuncheva, Lead Researcher and Project Manager for CasinoReviews.net, said: “Looking at the last 12 months of prediction markets, and the sheer media noise generated around them, it’s clear that trying to combat their rise has seen a similar spike in publicity. Rather than bans quietening the noise around the platforms, we’re seeing the opposite occur, highlighting that the current approach isn’t working for regulators.

“From gaining cut-through in restricted markets to huge interest around major political events, it’s clear that prediction markets have a place in the public conscience, and this will seemingly only grow as we head into the key midterm votes in the United States, as well as numerous elections throughout Europe.”