As the World Cup has begun, Betsson’s international betting data reveals a clear divergence between odds favourites and bettor behaviour. While the odds position Spain as the most likely winner, global betting activity tells a different story: Portugal is the most backed nation across Betsson’s 25 markets. Spain, despite having the lowest odds, ranks only fifth among bettors.
As the tournament kicks off, the familiar question resurfaces: who predicts tournaments most accurately — octopuses, banks, or betting companies? Regardless of where you stand, betting odds are ultimately less about predicting the winner and more about aggregating probability and market sentiment.
This year’s tournament will be the largest World Cup ever, featuring 48 teams, a halftime show and a return to a summer schedule for much of the world.
Ahead of the kickoff, Betsson has analysed odds movements and betting patterns from Europe to Latin America. According to current odds, Spain enters the competition as the favourite, followed by France and England. However, betting behaviour paints a different picture. Based on Betsson’s global betting volume, Portugal is the most backed team to win the tournament, ahead of France, the Netherlands and Argentina. Spain, despite being the odds favourite, ranks fifth among bettors.
“With a few days still to go, Portugal is currently the team we’ve received the most bets on. Higher odds can naturally draw attention, and our players clearly see Portugal as having a strong chance — and consider it a very attractive bet,” said Robin Olenius, Head of PR Betsson.
In the top scorer market, the alignment between odds and betting activity is stronger. Kylian Mbappé is both the favourite and the most backed player, followed by Harry Kane.
Both Mbappé and Lionel Messi also have the chance to challenge the all‑time World Cup scoring record, currently held by Germany’s Miroslav Klose with 16 goals in 24 matches (2002–2014). While Mbappé tops the odds at 7.00 and Messi has the third‑lowest odds to win the Golden Boot, betting patterns tell a different story — Messi is only the tenth most backed player.
Odds to Win Word cup 2026 (Betsson)
Spain: 5.60
France: 6.60
England: 8.00
Brazil: 9.00
Portugal: 9.00
Argentina: 10.00
Germany: 15.00
Netherlands: 21.00
Norway: 31.00
Belgium: 35.00
Most Backed Teams (Global Betting Stats, Betsson)
Portugal
France
Netherlands
Argentina
Spain
Brazil
Germany
England
Belgium
Norway
Most Backed Top Scorers
Kylian Mbappé
Harry Kane
Mikel Oyarzabal
Erling Haaland
Cristiano Ronaldo
Vinícius Júnior
Raphinha
Lamine Yamal
Ousmane Dembélé
Lionel Messi
