The French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) has issued a strict warning against prediction markets. Regulators firmly classify these digital platforms as illegal gambling operations.
The success of prediction market platforms is growing, particularly since the 2024 US presidential election. By offering users the opportunity to bet on predictions of political, sporting or geopolitical events, these sites handle billions of dollars. In France, these sites are not authorized and are considered illegal gambling sites.
This is why the main operators, at the request of the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ), have implemented geoblocking, thus preventing any gambling from France (except via VPN).
Because these prediction sites exhibit several addictive characteristics similar to those observed in online gambling, but amplified by the absence of the protection mechanisms that exist in the legal gambling market, the ANJ urges users to exercise caution.
Prediction markets exhibit several addictive characteristics, amplified by the fact that no protection is offered, unlike legal gambling sites: platforms are open 24/7, there are no built-in betting limits beyond the amounts wagered, no time limits, no identity checks to verify age, etc. The combination of visibility, accessibility and virality inherent to this type of platform generates a significant addictive loop.
Beyond the risks of addiction, other risks related to market or public opinion manipulation can incite harmful acts. Indeed, as soon as an actor can bet on an event and influence its probability, the market creates a financial incentive to provoke or accelerate negative outcomes such as performance sabotage in sports or violent actions in geopolitics.
In France , the ANJ (National Gaming Authority) determined as early as November 2024 that the services offered by Polymarket were likely to be considered unauthorised gambling. It therefore contacted the Panamanian-based operator, which implemented a geoblocking system preventing any gambling from taking place in France. Kalshi has also implemented a similar system.
Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal have blocked access to Polymarket, believing that the platform offers gambling services without having the required license.
In the US, Polymarket was authorised by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) to offer betting to US residents in November 2025. The offering had been limited previously since 2022. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has just sued Polymarket, arguing that its prediction markets constitute illegal gambling and should be subject to blocking measures.
In Australia, the local regulator blacklisted Polymarket on August 14, 2025.
In Colombia, in September 2025, the regulator asked internet service providers to block Polymarket.
