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A Balanced Take on Optimal RTP for New Turnover Taxation in Germany

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A Balanced Take on Optimal RTP for New Turnover Taxation in Germany
A Balanced Take on Optimal RTP for New Turnover Taxation in GermanyReading Time: 4 minutes

 

What should be the optimal return to player (RTP)? This is a hotly debated question in the German gambling industry following the changes in the turnover taxation that are scheduled to come into force from 1 July 2021.

While several figures and many theories have been advanced, we found particular LinkedIn post by Robert Lenzhofer, Co-Founder and CEO of Hölle Games, particularly well-balanced and insightful.

We are reproducing the post with minor changes here, with permission from the author. You can find the original post here.

Over to Mr. Lenzhofer now…


I have published a LinkedIn poll recently with the title: “If/when Germany introduces the 5.3% turnover tax, what RTP rate is best suited considering both game-play and effective tax-paid?”

After one week and 120 votes from industry experts, the poll showed the following result:

Picture of poll outcome. 90-92% RTP gets 52% votes. 87-89 gets 33%. 84-86 gets 8%. 81-83 gets 8%. Total 120 vots. Poll is closed

There are a few ways of looking at this, but I think the key take-away is that the industry this poll represents is fairly evenly split between above 90% RTP and below 90% RTP.

The tax explained

First, to ensure we are on the same page, a quick explanation of the tax proposed:

Currently a 5.3% tax on turnover has been proposed and a draft-legislation does exist. I won’t go into the politics and the thinking behind this, but rather try to analyze the numbers.

A 5.3% tax on every bet being placed on an online slot means an operator can not offer an RTP over 94.7%. At 94.7% RTP, the operator would break even exactly on a bet-level, but obviously would lose money as marketing, employees and general operation have to be financed somehow. Considering financial overhead in any operation, that means the maximum RTP a casino is technically able to offer while avoiding bankruptcy is probably around 93% or more likely at 92%. This is the top ceiling and at the same time too high to be profitable.

Now, there is a bit of uncertainty and I’m also not entirely sure if the number to calculate against is 5.3% or rather 5.033%. The tax is 5.3% on turnover, meaning a 1 EUR bet causes a tax of 5.3 cents, which totals to 1.053 EUR. The tax-portion of 1.053 EUR is less than 5.3%. 100*5.3/(100+5.3) = 5.033 resp. 5.033%. I do calculations here in this document based on 5.3%.

How to balance RTP and profitability

We’ve established above that 93% or 92% is the top ceiling, but where is the bottom?

The table below shows how a Slots-operator will be taxed, calculated into the GGR-equivalent %-age number and cross-referenced with RTP. For reference, many other jurisdictions in Europe offer a GGR-based tax-rate of around 20%. As you can see from the table below, the 5.3% tax-rate on turnover wouldn’t be so bad, if players would accept 80% RTP. At 80% RTP, the GGR-equivalent tax-rate is 26.50% and thus a competitive tax-rate.

Table describing various tax rates with respect to betting amount

The coloring I have done here may be slightly biased, especially in terms of RTP so please take with a grain of salt. But if you roughly accept that the red-area you want to avoid on the RTP and on the GGR-% side, then you end up with an RTP-bandwidth between 84% and 91% to play with.

Further, and again granted you accept the coloring, an operator obviously wants to find an RTP in the green and a GGR-% in the green. Here we arrive at 88% and 89% RTP.

Now, a lot has been written that players will not accept such low RTP’s as say 84%. There are counter-arguments made that in land-based slots the RTP is exactly at that level and actually 88% is on the higher-end in land-based casinos.

On the other hand, for many market-participants the number “9” is a psychological blocker. Players, Affiliates and a couple of Slots-Studios I speak to feel very anxious offering product below 90% as this number still feels somewhat close to the industry-average of 94 to 97%. 89% sounds very different than 90%, although it is “just” 1% in RTP dropped.

Sportsbook vs. Casinos

It will be interesting to watch if Sportsbook or Sports-led brands will choose a differing RTP-rate than Pure-Play Casinos. A Sportsbook can more easily stay on a higher RTP and just pause all short-term expenses (bonus, marketing, etc.) and focus on cross-sell. A pure-play Casino will have to look a lot more closely on bottom-line and in my opinion will have a hard time offering e.g. 90% RTP-Slots as the GGR-equivalent tax-rate is 53%.

Game-Mechanics?

Will there be new Game-Mechanics invented to combat this problem? Looking at the table above again, the second column states how many spins a player on average can make until 1 EUR is spent depending on the RTP-Level. At 95% RTP this is 20 spins. Now, if a Game-Mechanic can be invented that provides a low mathematical RTP while at the same time provides a similar amount of real spins, then this could be a solution to the problem.

Conclusion

The above explanation is in no way complete – there are actually interesting studies which analyze how much an RTP is “felt” by the player and there is probably very good data the land-based industry has to offer.

But, to move away from being neutral, here’s what I personally think: The reality will be that everyone will push the RTP down and experiment with the lowest acceptable RTP as this maximizes their income. As such, come 1st of July, we’ll see a lot of RTP’s experimented with. Imagine you are a pure-play casino and you can provide a Game-Mechanic that feels good to the player and has a nice session length, while staying at or below 40% GGR-equivalent-tax. I believe things start to fall apart financially for an operator at 40% tax-rate. If you own your own media-assets and have good deals with your suppliers and run a tight operation then a 40% tax is possible to do really well in Germany. That means, the average-RTP across the portfolio will have to be around 87-88%. I think you can mix in 91% games into the portfolio just so that is part of the portfolio too, but the majority of revenue of the white-market in Germany will in my opinion come from Slots around 88% RTP. And since some games will be mixed in at 90/91% you can expected some slots to be mixed in at 84/85% rate as well.

 

George Miller (Gyorgy Molnar) started his career in content marketing and has started working as an Editor/Content Manager for our company in 2016. George has acquired many experiences when it comes to interviews and newsworthy content becoming Head of Content in 2017. He is responsible for the news being shared on multiple websites that are part of the European Gaming Media Network.

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Gaming Americas Weekly Roundup – April 29-May 5

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Welcome to our weekly roundup of American gambling news again! Here, we are going through the weekly highlights of the American gambling industry which include the latest news and new partnerships. Read on and get updated.

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This month The Navajo Nation Gaming Enterprise honoured 186 of its total 1200 team members for reaching significant employment milestones including 15, 10 and 5 years of service for the enterprise. The event at Twin Arrows Navajo Casino Resort in Flagstaff, Ariz. showcased the impact and journey of each hard-working team member, with a special highlight for 29 employees who have served for 15 years.

Bruce Smith Enterprise and The Cordish Companies have been selected by the City of Petersburg, Virginia to codevelop a $1.4 billion Live! Gaming & Entertainment District, anchored by Live! Casino & Hotel Virginia. The Petersburg City Council unanimously approved Bruce Smith Enterprise and The Cordish Companies as the City’s preferred development partner on the transformative mixed-use project. The proposed project will generate billions of dollars in economic benefits and spinoff development, create thousands of new jobs and benefits to the local community and become a major new tourist destination for the City and the Central Virginia region.

CT Interactive’s LATAM team, led by Diego Verano Ponce and Ana Ruth Farías, attended SIGMA Brazil from April 23 to 25, 2024. The company’s decision to participate in the event underscores its commitment to expanding its presence and strengthening relationships within the region. The presence of Diego Verano and Ana Ruth Farías at SIGMA Brazil provided an excellent opportunity for CT Interactive to engage with industry stakeholders, discuss emerging trends and explore potential partnerships in the LATAM market.

The Colorado Division of Gambling has launched a new illegal gambling awareness campaign. The “Play Legit. Gamble Only Where Legal.” campaign aims to educate the public about the risks associated with illegal gambling and the importance of supporting regulated gaming venues. The campaign emphasises legal gambling options, including casinos in Black Hawk, Central City and Cripple Creek, as well as online sports betting and off-track betting.

Lottery.com Inc. announced the restart of its sweepstakes operations in conjunction with the WinTogether Trust, a registered 501(c)3 charitable organisation. The proceeds from the sweepstakes will benefit Street Child United. The sweepstakes had a soft launch on April 3, 2024, and is available at http://donateto.win, the successor to Lottery.com’s WinTogether.org platform.

Partnerships

Hard Rock International, Seminole Gaming and Royal Caribbean Group brands, Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises, unveiled a global partnership that will benefit both vacationers and team members of the brands. Travellers around the world can take advantage of accommodations, meals, discounts and more at Hard Rock and Seminole casinos, hotels and cafes, and on Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises vacations based on the milestone announcement made by two of South Florida’s largest private employers.

SCCG Management has signed a contract with the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC), the B.C. Crown corporation which conducts and manages commercial gambling in the province, including lotteries, casinos and online gaming. This partnership aims to undertake a comprehensive assessment and strategic enhancement of BCLC’s diverse operations. The work between SCCG and BCLC will involve a thorough review of technological infrastructures, strategic market positioning and the integration of various gaming modalities.

The post Gaming Americas Weekly Roundup – April 29-May 5 appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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South African Online Casino Player Strikes Gold with R189,000 Win at Tusk Casino

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In a thrilling display of fortune and skill, Tusk Casino announces a monumental win by Adelheid, a passionate player from South Africa, who secured an astonishing R189,000 from a mere R100 bet on the renowned casino slot game, Gate of Olympus. This remarkable achievement underscores the high-stakes excitement that Tusk Casino offers to its players.

Adelheid’s journey to this significant win was facilitated by his engagement with SouthAfricanCasinos.co.za, the premier online casino and gambling guide specifically designed for South African players. Since its inception in 2003, SouthAfricanCasinos.co.za has been a cornerstone in the online gambling community, offering expert reviews, trustworthy recommendations, and the latest gambling news, thereby guiding players like Adelheid to reputable and enjoyable online gambling experiences.

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With the support of SouthAfricanCasinos.co.za, Tusk Casino continues to solidify its position as a leading online gaming destination, offering secure, engaging, and lucrative gaming experiences for South African players. This partnership ensures that players have access to reliable information, the latest industry news, and the best online gambling opportunities, fostering a safe and enjoyable casino online gambling ecosystem.

About SouthAfricanCasinos.co.za

SouthAfricanCasinos.co.za stands as South Africa’s largest and most reliable online casino and gambling guide, delivering unparalleled casino recommendations, unbiased reviews, and comprehensive gambling insights tailored to ZAR casino players since 2003. It remains a crucial resource for players seeking secure, high-quality, and rewarding online gambling experiences.

About Tusk Casino

As an established corporation with numerous ground casinos worldwide, Tusk Casino has successfully extended its reach into the South African online casino market, offering an exquisite blend of stylish design, player-centric features, and significant bonuses. Licensed and regulated by the Government of Curacao, it provides a diverse range of over 3000 slot games from leading global providers, ensuring a rich, rewarding, and secure online gaming experience for all South African players. With its impressive bonuses and comprehensive payment support, Tusk Casino is dedicated to delivering a distinct and superior online gaming experience.

 

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UK-based PE Mansion Sports Announces Partnership with Billiards Legend Efren ‘Bata’ Reyes to Launch Billiards eCommerce Site

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Mansion Sports, a leading private equity firm based in the UK, specializing in investments across sports facilities, sports news portals, and sports entertainment, has announced its partnership with billiards icon Efren ‘Bata’ Reyes, coinciding with the launch of Mansion Sports Billiards, an eCommerce platform catering to global billiards enthusiasts. This strategic move underscores Mansion Sports’ commitment to elevating the billiards experience worldwide.

The partnership encompasses a series of events and tournaments showcasing high-level billiards play, as well as projects aimed at fostering a deeper connection with the sport’s enthusiasts. With Reyes’s involvement, these initiatives are poised to deliver thrilling matches and dynamic gameplay, leaving a lasting impact on the billiards community.

To kickoff the partnership, Mansion Sports unveiled Mansion Sports Billiards, an eCommerce site offering premium billiard products globally. Featuring high-quality cues, stylish tables, and top-notch accessories, the platform aims to enhance enthusiasts’ playing experience. Initially rolling out in Vietnam, Mansion Sports Billiards plans for global expansion.

Reyes, renowned for his  exceptional skill and long-standing dominance in billiards, joins Mansion Sports as Brand Ambassador. This partnership will leverage Reyes’s stature in the billiards community to bolster Mansion Sports’ presence through various events and initiatives.

“We are honored to have Efren ‘Bata’ Reyes as a Mansion Sports Brand Ambassador and are excited to work together to bring the sport of billiards to new heights. said Denis Keet, Managing Director of Mansion Sports.

“We believe that Reyes brings decades of experience and a storied career to the partnership. His achievements have not only earned him numerous titles and awards but also a substantial fan base and respect within the sports community,” Keet added.

The post UK-based PE Mansion Sports Announces Partnership with Billiards Legend Efren ‘Bata’ Reyes to Launch Billiards eCommerce Site appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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