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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

Published

6 years ago

July 16, 2019

Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages Reading Time: 3 minutes

As casino operators optimize the house advantage, a new UNLV study contradicts long-held beliefs about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

It’s a common sight on casino floors: patrons jumping from slot machine to slot machine before eventually hunkering down at a game that’s due for the next big payout. But can players – even the regulars who frequent a particular property – really tell the difference between the house edge on one game from that of another?

Nope. At least not according to a series of recent studies led by Anthony Lucas, a UNLV Hospitality College professor and former gaming industry operations analyst.

For the past several years, Lucas and colleague Katherine Spilde from San Diego State University have taken to casino floors on multiple properties in the U.S., Australia, and Mexico to investigate. Their results contradict long-held beliefs by casino operators about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

“I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices,” said Lucas. “But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect – questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data show that a new way of thinking may be better.”

In their latest study, the UNLV-led research team compared two pairs of reel slot games at a “locals” casino in suburban Sydney, Australia, where all wagering occurs on electronic gaming devices.

Their process is relatively straightforward: take two identical slot machines, positioned in similar places on a casino floor, but vary the par – the percent of total coin-in that the machine keeps over time. For example, if the par on a game is set at 10 percent, the machine would be expected to retain $10 of every $100 wagered, on average, over the long term. But in the short term, this rarely happens, increasing the difficulty of par detection.

For this study, researchers compared the daily performance of pairings for the games “Tokyo Rose” and “Dragon’s Fortune X” over a nine-month period. The pars within each pairing ranged from 7.98 percent on the low end to 14.93 percent on the high end.

Researchers measured daily coin-in for each machine as well as its T-win, a formula that multiplies coin-in and par to calculate a machine’s expected value, or its theoretical win. If, over the course of the nine-month test, regular players could detect a difference in the pars, this comparison would reveal whether (and how much) players migrated from higher par to lower par games.

As Lucas predicted, differences between the high and low par games remained stable throughout the length of the study, which meant that there was no statistically significant indication of play migration.

And while the lower par machines had more coin-in over the course of the study period, the T-win was greater on average for the high par machines. The positive impact from the elevated T-win on revenue for the higher par machines more than compensated for the decline in coin-in on those machines.

“Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in T-win, as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in,” said Lucas.

The results were also consistent with findings from the team’s previous studies, which analyzed 11 pairs of games over 180 days at gaming properties in U.S., Mexico and Australia.

So, other than busting one of gaming’s great myths, why does this matter?

Pars are an important factor for casinos looking to optimize revenues, as the bulk of slot revenues come from reel slots, and a lion’s share of a casino’s overall profits come from slot operations. While there are exceptions to this rule, it is true for most of the world’s casinos.

“Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task,” Lucas said. “Knowing which par will produce the greatest win is most helpful, but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced.”

That’s where industry perspective is mixed, as operators have expressed concerns that short-term gains from higher pars could lead to long-term losses as players leave perceived “tight” slot floors for the greener pastures of their competitors.

To account for this concern, researchers extended length of time from previous work, from six months to nine months. They also expanded the difference in pars between matched pairs from 4.9 percent in the initial study to 6.95 percent in the current study.

In a concurrent study, the researchers compared the Australian data with four, two-game pairings at two similarly situated casinos in Mexico. Par differences for those games were even more drastic – ranging from 7.98 to 8.9 percent.

Despite these factors, in both instances the results still found no evidence of players moving away from higher-par machines to their low-par counterparts, and the high-par games continued to post substantially greater revenues.

“Put simply, our results suggest that greater pars produce greater revenues, without the risk of brand damage resulting from ‘price’ detection,” Lucas said.

Full Study

The study, “Impacts of increased house advantages on reel slots,” was recently published online in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.

Source: Latest News on European Gaming Media Network
This is a Syndicated News piece. Photo credits or photo sources can be found on the source article: Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

Related Topics:gambling industry in Europe

George Miller

George Miller (Gyorgy Molnar) started his career in content marketing and has started working as an Editor/Content Manager for our company in 2016. George has acquired many experiences when it comes to interviews and newsworthy content becoming Head of Content in 2017. He is responsible for the news being shared on multiple websites that are part of the European Gaming Media Network.

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From ‘Mummyverse’ to Crash Games: Belatra Reviews a Landmark 2025

Published

5 days ago

December 23, 2025

George Miller

Editor’s Take

Why this matters: Belatra has been a steady hand in the slots world for a long time, but 2025 marked a distinct shift in strategy. By entering the Crash vertical with Goose Boom Bang and winning big at SiGMA Africa, the studio is clearly pivoting to capture the high-growth, high-frequency players in emerging markets. They are no longer just a “classic slots” developer; they are diversifying the portfolio to ensure relevance in regions like LatAm and Africa.

The Full Story

Belatra Games, the specialist online slots developer, has issued a strategic review of its 2025 operations, celebrating a 12-month period defined by entry into new game verticals, significant franchise expansion, and high-profile industry recognition.

The year was characterized by a dual strategy: deepening engagement in established markets while aggressively expanding its content portfolio to suit local preferences in emerging territories.

Portfolio Evolution: Crash and Battles 2025 saw Belatra move beyond its traditional slot roots. The company made its debut in the high-demand Crash game vertical with the launch of Goose Boom Bang, a title designed to tap into the fast-paced gameplay preference of younger demographics.

Additionally, the studio introduced a fresh game concept with the launch of Battles, a new format unveiled for the first time in 2025, with further development planned for 2026.

The ‘Mummyverse’ Expands For fans of classic slots, the highlight of the year was the aggressive expansion of the Mummyverse. Belatra nearly doubled the size of this franchise over the year, making it the most extensive game universe in their entire catalog.

The developer also focused on B2B localization, releasing a number of exclusive bespoke games created specifically for selected operator partners to meet specific local market tastes.

Awards and Recognition The company’s strategic shifts were validated by industry accolades. Belatra secured over 30 nominations throughout the year, with standout wins including:

Best Slot Provider (awarded by BitStarz).
Most Played Game of 2025 for Make It Gold at the SiGMA Africa Awards.
Player’s Pick Award.

Management Commentary Misha Voinich, Head of Business Development at Belatra, commented on the studio’s momentum:

“This year has truly defined who we are as a studio – ambitious, creative and focused on building long-term partnerships. We’ve expanded our universes, launched new ones and entered exciting new markets that will all help us carry this momentum into the New Year.”

The post From ‘Mummyverse’ to Crash Games: Belatra Reviews a Landmark 2025 appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry Newsroom.

Latest News

‘Chaos and Soul’: Ebaka Games Plots Global Expansion After Viral Launch

Published

5 days ago

December 23, 2025

George Miller

Editor’s Take

Why this matters: The “Instant Game” vertical (Crash, Plinko, Mines) is becoming crowded, but Ebaka Games is cutting through the noise with a distinct brand personality. By securing BMM Testlabs certification so quickly after launch, they are signaling to Tier 1 operators that despite their “chaotic” marketing vibe, the math underneath is solid and compliant. The backing of industry veteran Dmitry Belianin also adds immediate commercial credibility to the startup.

The Full Story

Ebaka Games, the fledgling studio that promises to bring “chaos and soul” to the iGaming sector, has outlined an aggressive growth strategy for 2026 following a landmark launch period in late 2025.

The studio, which officially debuted in November, reports that its initial rollout reached more than five million people worldwide. The launch saw its portfolio go live with the operator Menace, serving as the initial testbed for its mechanics and “Ebaka modes.”

The Product: Instant Games with Personality Ebaka is bypassing traditional slots to focus on the high-growth vertical of fast-paced, instant-win games. Their initial lineup includes:

Plinko
Mines
Tower
Limbo
Crash

Differentiation is achieved through unique mascots and signature gameplay tweaks designed to offer high win potential and distinct visual identities, moving away from the generic interfaces often found in this genre.

Regulatory Milestone Crucially for its 2026 roadmap, Ebaka Games has confirmed it has secured certification from BMM Testlabs. This accreditation validates the fairness and integrity of its RNG (Random Number Generator) and game engines, removing a major barrier to entry for regulated markets. With this certification in hand, the studio plans to launch with a number of “major brands” in the coming year.

Management Commentary Vitalii Zalievskyi, CEO of Ebaka Games, commented on the studio’s unorthodox approach:

“It’s only been a few weeks since we first introduced Ebaka Games to the world. The feedback has been breathtaking, and it vindicates the decision for us to take a different path to the rest of the industry. You don’t need huge marketing budgets to grab people’s attention if you are building something truly innovative.”

Industry Backing The studio describes itself as being “created by players for players” but boasts significant industry firepower in its corner. The team includes Dmitry Belianin, a well-known figure in the sector who is the co-founder of Blask and Menace, as well as Managing Partner at Already Media.

The post ‘Chaos and Soul’: Ebaka Games Plots Global Expansion After Viral Launch appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry Newsroom.

Latest News

Racing Meets Nightlife: SBK Backs ARC’s New ‘Friday Night Live’ Series

Published

5 days ago

December 23, 2025

George Miller

Editor’s Take

Why this matters: British racing has a well-documented demographic problem; its core audience is aging. “Friday Night Live” is a direct attempt to fix this by blending high-stakes racing with the “experience economy” (DJs, nightlife vibes) that appeals to Gen Z and Millennials. Bringing SBK on board—a mobile-first, app-only sportsbook—is a perfect demographic fit, while the Racing Post adds the necessary credibility to ensure the actual racing product remains the focus.

The Full Story

Arena Racing Company (ARC) has unveiled the strategic commercial lineup for its upcoming Friday Night Live series, confirming SBK as the Exclusive Betting Partner and The Racing Post as the Official Media Partner.

Set to launch in January 2026, Friday Night Live is a new initiative created in collaboration with youth-focused events company INVADES. The series is designed to overhaul the traditional race day experience, featuring fast-paced fixtures under floodlights, DJ sets, and significant entertainment elements sandwiched between races.

The Commercial Deal

SBK: As the exclusive betting partner, the Smarkets-owned sportsbook will take naming rights and on-course branding for all 35 races. Crucially, these races will be broadcast live on mainstream television via ITV Racing as well as Sky Sports Research.
The Racing Post: As the Official Media Partner, the publication will provide content, coverage, and promotion across its digital platforms, aiming to bridge the gap between established racing purists and the new audience ARC hopes to attract.

A High-Stakes Experiment The series is not just a marketing exercise; it carries serious sporting weight. Each of the five scheduled nights will feature over £200,000 in prize money. The fixtures will rotate across three of ARC’s all-weather tracks: Wolverhampton, Newcastle, and Southwell.

Management Commentary David Leyden Dunbar, Group Director of Commercial Strategy at ARC, was clear about the target audience:

“We have been very clear that one of the aims of Friday Night Live is to engage the next generation of racing fans… Both [partners] have shown real enthusiasm to work with us… as well as using the platform that these fixtures will offer them to also engage with more established racing and sports fans.”

Adam Baylis, Marketing Director at SBK, added:

“Friday Night Live [is] a fresh and engaging concept that brings a new energy to British racing. SBK has always been built around sport… our focus is on enhancing the live race day experience in a fun, social and responsible way.”

The 2026 Schedule The series kicks off immediately in the new year: