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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout PercentagesReading Time: 3 minutes

 

As casino operators optimize the house advantage, a new UNLV study contradicts long-held beliefs about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

 

It’s a common sight on casino floors: patrons jumping from slot machine to slot machine before eventually hunkering down at a game that’s due for the next big payout. But can players – even the regulars who frequent a particular property – really tell the difference between the house edge on one game from that of another?

Nope. At least not according to a series of recent studies led by Anthony Lucas, a UNLV Hospitality College professor and former gaming industry operations analyst.

For the past several years, Lucas and colleague Katherine Spilde from San Diego State University have taken to casino floors on multiple properties in the U.S., Australia, and Mexico to investigate. Their results contradict long-held beliefs by casino operators about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

“I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices,” said Lucas. “But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect – questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data show that a new way of thinking may be better.”

In their latest study, the UNLV-led research team compared two pairs of reel slot games at a “locals” casino in suburban Sydney, Australia, where all wagering occurs on electronic gaming devices.

Their process is relatively straightforward: take two identical slot machines, positioned in similar places on a casino floor, but vary the par – the percent of total coin-in that the machine keeps over time. For example, if the par on a game is set at 10 percent, the machine would be expected to retain $10 of every $100 wagered, on average, over the long term. But in the short term, this rarely happens, increasing the difficulty of par detection.

For this study, researchers compared the daily performance of pairings for the games “Tokyo Rose” and “Dragon’s Fortune X” over a nine-month period. The pars within each pairing ranged from 7.98 percent on the low end to 14.93 percent on the high end.

Researchers measured daily coin-in for each machine as well as its T-win, a formula that multiplies coin-in and par to calculate a machine’s expected value, or its theoretical win. If, over the course of the nine-month test, regular players could detect a difference in the pars, this comparison would reveal whether (and how much) players migrated from higher par to lower par games.

As Lucas predicted, differences between the high and low par games remained stable throughout the length of the study, which meant that there was no statistically significant indication of play migration.

And while the lower par machines had more coin-in over the course of the study period, the T-win was greater on average for the high par machines. The positive impact from the elevated T-win on revenue for the higher par machines more than compensated for the decline in coin-in on those machines.

“Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in T-win, as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in,” said Lucas.

The results were also consistent with findings from the team’s previous studies, which analyzed 11 pairs of games over 180 days at gaming properties in U.S., Mexico and Australia.

So, other than busting one of gaming’s great myths, why does this matter?

Pars are an important factor for casinos looking to optimize revenues, as the bulk of slot revenues come from reel slots, and a lion’s share of a casino’s overall profits come from slot operations. While there are exceptions to this rule, it is true for most of the world’s casinos.

“Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task,” Lucas said. “Knowing which par will produce the greatest win is most helpful, but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced.”

That’s where industry perspective is mixed, as operators have expressed concerns that short-term gains from higher pars could lead to long-term losses as players leave perceived “tight” slot floors for the greener pastures of their competitors.

To account for this concern, researchers extended length of time from previous work, from six months to nine months. They also expanded the difference in pars between matched pairs from 4.9 percent in the initial study to 6.95 percent in the current study.

In a concurrent study, the researchers compared the Australian data with four, two-game pairings at two similarly situated casinos in Mexico. Par differences for those games were even more drastic – ranging from 7.98 to 8.9 percent.

Despite these factors, in both instances the results still found no evidence of players moving away from higher-par machines to their low-par counterparts, and the high-par games continued to post substantially greater revenues.

“Put simply, our results suggest that greater pars produce greater revenues, without the risk of brand damage resulting from ‘price’ detection,” Lucas said.

Full Study

The study, “Impacts of increased house advantages on reel slots,” was recently published online in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.


Source: Latest News on European Gaming Media Network
This is a Syndicated News piece. Photo credits or photo sources can be found on the source article: Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

George Miller (Gyorgy Molnar) started his career in content marketing and has started working as an Editor/Content Manager for our company in 2016. George has acquired many experiences when it comes to interviews and newsworthy content becoming Head of Content in 2017. He is responsible for the news being shared on multiple websites that are part of the European Gaming Media Network.

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Principle Networks Announces Partnership with Buzz Bingo

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Principle Networks has announced a major wireless transformation project with Buzz Bingo, a part of the Buzz Group Ltd.

The new project, which will be co-managed by Principle Networks and Buzz Bingo’s IT team over a five-year term, will see the implementation of Cisco Meraki wireless access points. These enterprise-grade cloud-managed access points are designed to connect IoT devices and security solutions and will enable Buzz Bingo to offer a range of new services and improve customer experiences across its clubs.

“Absolutely delighted to share news of this partnership! David Cutts (CTO) is driving an ambitious technology transformation at Buzz Bingo to enhance overall customer experience and we’re super proud to be playing our part in supporting its success,” Principle Networks CEO said.

“A key part of our growth will be driven by enhancing customer experiences through investments in our clubs and the latest technologies. The concept of bingo has evolved. Today, customers have a wide range of choices of how they want to play — and our omnichannel approach is unique — with technology sitting at the heart. Principle Networks demonstrated a deep understanding of our objectives and have the expertise required to deliver them. We’re excited about this partnership’s possibilities and look forward to working with the team,” David Cutts, Chief Technology Officer at Buzz Bingo, said.

“A secure and reliable network infrastructure is central to delivering the best possible customer experience, whether online or in a club. As the UK’s biggest bingo operator, Buzz Bingo is continually looking for innovative ways to enhance its offering, and we’re very proud to have been chosen as its IT partner for the next five years,” Russell Crowley, Co-founder of Principle Networks, said.

The post Principle Networks Announces Partnership with Buzz Bingo appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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UKGC Announces Changes Aimed at Increasing Consumer Control Over Deposit Limits

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The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has announced changes aimed at increasing consumer control over deposit limits and greater transparency of customer funds protection by operators.

A further change to the Commission’s Licence Conditions and Codes of Practice (LCCP) will also pave the way for implementation of Government’s upcoming statutory levy.

The changes follow a consultation and are consistent with the 2023 White Paper High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age.

New rules will give consumers more effective ways to manage their gambling by making it easier to set and maintain deposit limits on their online accounts, in ways that work best for them.

From 31 October 2025 all gambling businesses must prompt their customers to set a financial limit before they make their first deposit and make it easy to review and alter this limit at any point after.

These rules will take good practice already offered by some operators and expand that so customers can expect the same standards across the industry.

Gambling businesses will also be required to remind consumers every six months to review their account and transaction information – this will help consumers consider if they want to change existing, or set new, deposit limits.

Operators who hold customer funds must set out in the terms and conditions whether these are protected in the event of insolvency, the level of such protection and the method by which this is achieved. They must also make this information available at the point at which a customer first deposits money.

The Commission’s LCCP currently requires operators to make annual financial contributions to a list of research, prevention and treatment organisations. This requirement will be removed close to the introduction of the government’s statutory levy (opens in new tab) (expected to come into force on 6 April 2025) as it will become obsolete.

“These changes illustrate our commitment to ensuring gambling is fair and open by improving consumer empowerment and choice. These changes will help consumers decide on deposit limits, enable them to keep track of their spending and ensure they are fully aware of what happens to their funds should an operator become insolvent. We will now continue our work to deliver our remaining White Paper commitments, including our programme of evaluation,” Tim Miller, Commission Executive Director for research and policy, said.

The post UKGC Announces Changes Aimed at Increasing Consumer Control Over Deposit Limits appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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BlueBet to Acquire Certain Assets of Merlehan Booking

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BlueBet Holdings has signed a binding Asset Sale Agreement to acquire certain assets of Merlehan Booking Pty Ltd (TopSport).

To support the acquisition, BlueBet is undertaking an institutional placement to raise approximately $15.0 million by issuing around 44.1 million new shares. The proceeds will fund the upfront payment to TopSport and support integration, migration costs, working capital and further growth initiatives. The placement is priced at $0.34 per share, representing a premium over recent trading prices, and is set to settle on 12 February 2025.

The acquisition leverages BlueBet’s repeatable M&A model, driving industry consolidation and creating shareholder value. TopSport is expected to enhance BlueBet’s margin advantage, share of wallet, and customer engagement through BlueBet’s technology platform, including its personalised promotion engine.

“The acquisition of TopSport materially enhances BlueBet’s profitability and scale, is highly accretive for our shareholders and brings us closer to our strategic target of 10%+ market share in Australia. Inorganic growth remains a key opportunity for BlueBet and we have a laser focus and a repeatable M&A model to drive shareholder value by further consolidating the Australian wagering market. This transaction is a blueprint for further M&A and delivers a high conversion of Net Gaming Revenue to EBITDA as we leverage our previous investment in our proprietary technology, brand and best-in-class management team. Tristan Merlehan is one of this country’s most-respected bookmakers and will further strengthen our market-leading risk and trading capability, driving margin improvement and sustainable profitability for shareholders,” BlueBet CEO Andrew Menz said.

The post BlueBet to Acquire Certain Assets of Merlehan Booking appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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