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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout PercentagesReading Time: 3 minutes

 

As casino operators optimize the house advantage, a new UNLV study contradicts long-held beliefs about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

 

It’s a common sight on casino floors: patrons jumping from slot machine to slot machine before eventually hunkering down at a game that’s due for the next big payout. But can players – even the regulars who frequent a particular property – really tell the difference between the house edge on one game from that of another?

Nope. At least not according to a series of recent studies led by Anthony Lucas, a UNLV Hospitality College professor and former gaming industry operations analyst.

For the past several years, Lucas and colleague Katherine Spilde from San Diego State University have taken to casino floors on multiple properties in the U.S., Australia, and Mexico to investigate. Their results contradict long-held beliefs by casino operators about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

“I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices,” said Lucas. “But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect – questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data show that a new way of thinking may be better.”

In their latest study, the UNLV-led research team compared two pairs of reel slot games at a “locals” casino in suburban Sydney, Australia, where all wagering occurs on electronic gaming devices.

Their process is relatively straightforward: take two identical slot machines, positioned in similar places on a casino floor, but vary the par – the percent of total coin-in that the machine keeps over time. For example, if the par on a game is set at 10 percent, the machine would be expected to retain $10 of every $100 wagered, on average, over the long term. But in the short term, this rarely happens, increasing the difficulty of par detection.

For this study, researchers compared the daily performance of pairings for the games “Tokyo Rose” and “Dragon’s Fortune X” over a nine-month period. The pars within each pairing ranged from 7.98 percent on the low end to 14.93 percent on the high end.

Researchers measured daily coin-in for each machine as well as its T-win, a formula that multiplies coin-in and par to calculate a machine’s expected value, or its theoretical win. If, over the course of the nine-month test, regular players could detect a difference in the pars, this comparison would reveal whether (and how much) players migrated from higher par to lower par games.

As Lucas predicted, differences between the high and low par games remained stable throughout the length of the study, which meant that there was no statistically significant indication of play migration.

And while the lower par machines had more coin-in over the course of the study period, the T-win was greater on average for the high par machines. The positive impact from the elevated T-win on revenue for the higher par machines more than compensated for the decline in coin-in on those machines.

“Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in T-win, as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in,” said Lucas.

The results were also consistent with findings from the team’s previous studies, which analyzed 11 pairs of games over 180 days at gaming properties in U.S., Mexico and Australia.

So, other than busting one of gaming’s great myths, why does this matter?

Pars are an important factor for casinos looking to optimize revenues, as the bulk of slot revenues come from reel slots, and a lion’s share of a casino’s overall profits come from slot operations. While there are exceptions to this rule, it is true for most of the world’s casinos.

“Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task,” Lucas said. “Knowing which par will produce the greatest win is most helpful, but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced.”

That’s where industry perspective is mixed, as operators have expressed concerns that short-term gains from higher pars could lead to long-term losses as players leave perceived “tight” slot floors for the greener pastures of their competitors.

To account for this concern, researchers extended length of time from previous work, from six months to nine months. They also expanded the difference in pars between matched pairs from 4.9 percent in the initial study to 6.95 percent in the current study.

In a concurrent study, the researchers compared the Australian data with four, two-game pairings at two similarly situated casinos in Mexico. Par differences for those games were even more drastic – ranging from 7.98 to 8.9 percent.

Despite these factors, in both instances the results still found no evidence of players moving away from higher-par machines to their low-par counterparts, and the high-par games continued to post substantially greater revenues.

“Put simply, our results suggest that greater pars produce greater revenues, without the risk of brand damage resulting from ‘price’ detection,” Lucas said.

Full Study

The study, “Impacts of increased house advantages on reel slots,” was recently published online in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.


Source: Latest News on European Gaming Media Network
This is a Syndicated News piece. Photo credits or photo sources can be found on the source article: Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

George Miller (Gyorgy Molnar) started his career in content marketing and has started working as an Editor/Content Manager for our company in 2016. George has acquired many experiences when it comes to interviews and newsworthy content becoming Head of Content in 2017. He is responsible for the news being shared on multiple websites that are part of the European Gaming Media Network.

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Meridianbet Expands B2B Operations into Nigeria, Entering a Regulated $2 Billion Betting Market

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Meridianbet, a subsidiary of Golden Matrix Group, Inc., has officially launched its B2B operations in Nigeria, one of the largest and fastest-growing betting markets in Africa. The company’s entry into Nigeria further strengthens its 20-year presence in Africa, leveraging its proven track record in regulated markets to deliver world-class gaming products.

Through its newly licensed local entity, Masterlive Network Limited, Meridianbet has secured full regulatory approval from the Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority (LSLGA), allowing it to operate in both sports betting and online casino verticals under License No: LSLGA/OP/OSB/MB041124.

The official launch of Meridianbet.ng marks a strategic expansion into a market worth over $2 billion, according to the research of Orange Business Intelligence Technology, with over 60 million Nigerians actively participate in betting, contributing to one of the fastest-growing industries on the continent.

Zoran Milosevic, CEO of Meridianbet, commented: “Our expansion into Nigeria marks a significant step in our long-term strategy to deepen our presence in Africa’s most dynamic gaming markets. With a highly engaged player base and strong industry growth, Nigeria presents a major opportunity for our B2B model. We are committed to bringing our cutting-edge technology, AI-powered betting solutions, and localized expertise to drive long-term success for our partners in the region.”

FY 2024 Revenue Growth & Investor Outlook

Golden Matrix Group has provided a preliminary full-year 2024 revenue estimate of $150 million, reflecting the company’s continued growth trajectory. The Group expects to release its audited FY 2024 financial results in the coming days, offering investors a comprehensive performance overview. The Nigerian market represents a strategic opportunity for future revenue expansion, aligning with GMGI’s global strategy to strengthen its presence in high-growth gaming markets.

Key Market Potential & Strategic Expansion

According to the Orange Business Intelligence Technology (ORBIT), Nigeria’s betting industry surpassed $2 billion back in 2020, with projections indicating up to $4.7 billion in annual revenue potential over the next decade. Football remains the primary driver of market growth, with a vast customer base engaging both online and offline. Meridianbet’s B2B model will provide advanced technology solutions, gaming content, and platform services to local operators, offering a scalable and highly adaptable system tailored to the Nigerian market.

A Strategic Milestone in Meridianbet’s African Growth

With operations in 18 markets across Europe, Africa, and Latin America, Meridianbet has built a reputation as a leading technology provider and betting operator. The company’s expansion into Nigeria follows its long-standing success in established African markets, where it has been a dominant player for over two decades.

The soft launch of Meridianbet.ng is already delivering positive early results, with strong partner satisfaction and excellent customer feedback.

AI-Powered Innovation & Market Expansion

As part of this rollout, Meridianbet is introducing its proprietary AI Sports Betting Recommender and AI Casino Recommender, delivering personalized betting experiences based on real-time data, player behavior, and predictive analytics. These innovations, already proving successful in multiple markets, will enhance customer engagement, retention, and overall user satisfaction in Nigeria’s rapidly evolving gaming landscape.

The post Meridianbet Expands B2B Operations into Nigeria, Entering a Regulated $2 Billion Betting Market appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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Week 11/2025 slot games releases

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Here are this weeks latest slots releases compiled by European Gaming

PG Soft has launched its swashbuckling new 3-reel, 3-row video slot, Mr Treasure’s Fortune. PG Soft’s perilous high-seas expedition blends the nostalgia of classic arcade machines with modern gameplay as players search for the legendary Black Fang Pirates’ hidden fortune.

 

ELA Games presents its newest development, Noble Crown. This title, with its high-quality graphics, enticing animations and contribution to a balanced portfolio, is a testament to the studio’s design and development philosophy. This 5×3 slot includes iconic symbols commonly seen in classic pub games, such as crowns, diamonds and lucky sevens.

Evoplay has launched Emerald Brewer, a festive slot that captures the spirit of St. Patrick’s Day with vibrant visuals, rewarding features, and a taste of Irish luck. Played on a 5×4 reel layout, the game introduces Wild symbols, which substitute for all regular symbols except Green Pot, Coin, and Bonus symbols.

Swintt, is helping players satisfy their cravings for sugar, spice and all things nice in Candyman – a sweet new Premium release where tumbling reels and multiplier free spins pave the way to candy-coated wins of up to 5,000x. Played out across an expanded 6×5 reel matrix, Candyman does away with conventional lines in favour of a scatter mechanic were collecting eight or more matching symbols guarantees a prize regardless of where they land, with new icons falling from above to potentially create further wins.

 
Make Slots Great Again! Nolimit City breaks the norm once more in its latest release Home of the Brave. A slot that isn’t afraid to take a jab! No agendas here, just a whole lot of chaotic fun, spicy mechanics and unpredictable gameplay. Unlike typical slots, which are composed of a couple of rows and reels, Home of the Brave includes a Conveyor Belt positioned above the top row and 2 Hot Sauce Reels on either side of the reel area.

 
Thunderkick has released The Golden Pot & Pints, the latest introduction to its diverse festive-themed portfolio centred around the iconic Irish holiday, St. Patrick’s Day. Set in an Irish tavern, four lucky leprechauns reside on the reels of this 7×7 cluster pays slot, accompanied by tankards, top hats, and shamrocks.

 
Amusnet has unveiled the latest addition to its Live Casino portfolio, Extra Crown Deluxe Live. The company’s first-ever live slot game seamlessly blends tradition and innovation into an exciting mix of standard slot games and live-streamed action available 24/7.

 

Million Games is thrilled to announce the launch of Vault Rush, the latest high-volatility online slot developed in collaboration with YUGO Workshop under the Million Stars partner program. This 5×3 reel slot pays homage to the golden era of classic slots, featuring familiar symbols like 7s, Bars, bells, and fruits.

Play’n GO introduces Trinity Impact, a vibrant new slot that combines adventure, magic, and teamwork in a quest to save the mystical realm of Lumina. Immerse yourself in the enchanting world of Trinity Impact, where players join three friends on a heroic journey to protect Lumina, a land of magical wonders and ancient Crystal relics.

Push Gaming has launched the sequel to its 2024 Arctic-themed hit with the release of Big Bite Push Ways. The title will debut the provider’s new mechanic, Push Ways. This mechanic features nudging Hot Zones, which splits any symbol within the overlay into two. This increases the number of available ways to 262,144 and drives engagement.

Amusnet has released a new game for those who enjoy classic slot games with a dice twist. The latest addition to the company’s Online Casino, 100 Golden Coins Dice Edition, comes to life in March to provide a fun gaming experience to all dice lovers. This 5-reel, 100-fixed-payline game combines the classic slot game and dice symbols in entertaining gameplay.

Players can expect a fresh and juicy take on the classic slot experience in the latest title from ICONIC21. Iconic Fruits: Hold and Win sees classic appeal meet modern excitement across a three-by-three gameboard with five paylines active. A feeling of nostalgia will be felt as the reels spin and Fruit and Coin symbols land – this includes Cherries, Lemons, Pineapples, Strawberries and Watermelons.

Blueprint Gaming™ has upped the ante in its latest instalment to the iconic Cash Strike™ series. With the eye-catching win boost feature offering electric collect wins boosted by multipliers, Cash Strike Win Boost increases the player’s chances of returns up to a striking 50,000x. A familiar feast of classic fruit symbols adorns the 3×3, 125 ways to win slot alongside an array of blazing golden coins, heightening the excitement with enlarged opportunities for wins during base play.

Playson, the renowned digital entertainment supplier, is taking casino gameplay into an electric new dimension in its latest release, Charge the Clovers: Hit the Bonus™, as bonus play leads with unique Super Charge and Multi features. Golden clovers, making a welcome return to the 3×3 grid, take the form of bonus symbols alongside boost icons, featuring swirling blue tornados which radiate vibrant energy and boost the chance of eye-catching payouts for players.

Every fisherman has a story to tell. Booming Games brings these stories to life with the brand-new Fish Tales games series! The first game tells a story of a mythical bass, so large it can fit the entire reel! See if this is just a myth or indeed, there is such a creature roaming the deep and reel yourself in some monster wins! Fish Tales Monster Bass is a 5×3, 20-line slot with a boatload of features. Start to net wins with the Fishin’ Time cash collection.

The post Week 11/2025 slot games releases appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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ELA Games Enters the Danish Market Through New Strategic Collaboration With RoyalCasino

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ELA Games, a supplier of innovative games in the iGaming industry, has partnered with RoyalCasino to enter the Danish market.

Royal Casino is Denmark’s only land-based and online casino with over 33 years of experience in the gambling industry. The Danish RoyalCasino Group operates the land-based casino in their top-rated Hotel Royal, offering Danish players an elevated gaming experience.

ELA Games’ collaboration with the prestigious Danish brand marks a significant milestone for the development studio, as they are entering the Danish market. As a result, ELA Games’ innovative content, such as hallmark titles like Cash of Gods, It’s Shark Time and Lucky Dwarfs, will be hosted on the RoyalCasino.dk platform.

David Fall, ELA Games’ Business Development Manager, commented on the partnership, “RoyalCasino is an illustrious figure in the Danish gaming scene, and we’re excited to partner with them to provide our content on their platform. RoyalCasino.dk, despite its pedigree, is a rapidly growing brand. With the various promotions prepared in tandem with this announcement, ELA Games looks forward to expanding in Denmark.”

Jonas Madsen, RoyalCasino’s Director of Retention Marketing, added, “We’re very excited about the addition of ELA Games to our portfolio of games at RoyalCasino.dk. ELA Games is an up-and-coming game provider who, in just a few years, has managed to create captivating games with quality graphics, and we’re confident that their content will cater to the preferences of our growing database of players.”

The post ELA Games Enters the Danish Market Through New Strategic Collaboration With RoyalCasino appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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